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Stockbroker hype claims that nanotechnology is the “Next Big Thing”.
Yawn.
Various environmental activists claim that if we fabricate nanotechnology
devices that get loose in the environment, we’re all going to die. Yawn.
Nano is interesting, but so is biology, physics, chemistry, and geology
(excuse me, “Earth Science”). For some curious reason, all these have nanostructures
in them already, from viruses to quantum dots to organic molecules to zeolite
crystals. Some of these things are dangerous, particularly viruses and
certain organic molecules. Our real problems seem to be focused on the
behavior of our fellow humans more than on the presence of dust, poisons,
and pathogens in the atmosphere.
The generalization of nanotechnology from circuit manufacturing to “everything”
means that the smaller, faster, cheaper we’re used to in computers will
now appear in food, cars, vacations, hair styles, education, and government
services. Smaller food is way overdue, particularly in the restaurants
where I eat.
Nano, due to the fabrication technologies involved, fundamentally upsets
all kinds of habits, commercial relationships, and language elements. Some
of us might recall the late 70's and early 80's, when “tri-state bus” might
have meant the Greyhound running from New York to New Jersey to Pennsylvania.
If you are the “average guy” you’re idea of building a storage shed is
to grab a hammer, some two by fours, a sheet or two of plywood, and some
nails. It doesn’t involve sitting down at a Computer Aided Design workstation
to render a 3-D image of the shed. At the risk of sounding old fashioned,
the “average gal’s” idea of making food is to light up the stove and put
something in the pan. We’re already at the point where it’s cheaper to
eat out than it is to cook at home, unless you are accomplished at eating
all the food you make.
Imagine running down to your home improvement store to buy some light
bulbs, and the sales clerk rolls out a sheet of OLED plastic and asks you
how many square feet of lighting material you would like. You are used
to the idea of going to the clothing store and trying on various items
until you get a fit: now you stand in a scanner and then watch your jeans
sown together from your exact dimensions and specifications. You go to
your favorite hamburger stand and sit down to gleaming silverware on a
tablecloth, and order from a ten page menu. . .that is, if you haven’t
preordered from your palmtop computer.
The idea of “browsing the isles” is obsolete. Nano enables “manufacturing
in place” for things as prosaic as food and as technologically intense
as airplane parts. Chemical factories can be fit in the volume of a microwave
oven. 3-D printers (layer after layer of material built up from “inkjet”
technology) are the solution of choice if vehicle parts are complex amorphous
(non-crystalline) metallic or ceramic shapes. “Self assembling systems”
means that you inflate a “template”, spray it with the right material,
and on deflation you have your storage shed — designed to withstand a direct
hit from a Category 5 tornado.
There are usually kiosks at malls that have cameras, scanners, and printers
for putting your ugly mug on an ugly mug. One would not expect someone
working retail all day to be that technologically accomplished. Now multiply
that by all restaurants, clothing stores, home improvement retailers, and
car repair shops. Do you trust your mechanic to properly manufacture your
brake pads just before they’re installed on your SUV? Is this really different
from “glasses in about an hour?”.
The amount of computing buried under this is enormous. For the brake
pad to come out right, it is first necessary to sequence the deposition
of materials in such a way that the part is fabricated to spec. Then it
is necessary to subject the part to non-destructive testing, in order to
identify any faults that might have formed during the fabrication run.
If faults are found, the machine will have to “remediate” the part by decomposing
it back into it’s original constituents. In short, manufacturing, quality
assurance, distribution, and pollution control are all in a cabinet you
can put your arms around.
There’s no telling how many programmers are out there, but Moore’s law
doesn’t apply to talent. Computing costs have been reduced to irrelevancy.
Advances in the fabrication of silicon are now advances in the fabrication
of anything that is either crystalline or organic, which specifically includes
filters and reactors for liquids and gasses, which are themselves neither
of the former. The intelligence required to design these processes, operate
them, and repair them when they fail rises as fast as the device geometries
shrink. We are at the threshold of having one gigabit flash memories. True
nanotechnology is one thousand times denser than that, implying a 1 terabit
flash memory. Will we need 1000 times as many engineers, chemists, physicists,
and programmers as we have now to create and maintain all the resulting
technology? Or will the existing number simply be paid 1000 times as much?
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